NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has now entered its fifth year as of Monday, marking four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% since its bear-market low at the close on October 12, 2022. That session’s finish at 3,577.03 represented its lowest close since November 2020. As of Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026 and nearing all-time highs. Over the past week, the index also gained 1.2%.
This phase of market expansion ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s within the historical series. It is the seventh to reach at least four years of duration. The 119% increase remains below the average of 184% seen across the bull markets analyzed. Past cycles achieved significantly larger cumulative gains; for example, the 2009-to-2020 bull market grew by 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle rose by 582%. These two periods continue to stand out as among the strongest advances historically.
Many past bull markets that reached this stage have experienced positive returns. In fact, six out of the previous 10 bull markets lasted longer than four years. Among those that persisted into a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The analysis also noted an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years. However, these figures reflect historical patterns and do not guarantee the current cycle will follow the same trajectory.
Corporate earnings bolster the ongoing market strength
During this latest rally phase, earnings from companies have shown signs of resilience. FactSet reports that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of October 9 are tracking 29.6% above the same period last year. This marks the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. When the quarter ended on September 30, the growth rate was 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies reporting earnings by October 9, 84% surpassed analysts’ average estimates, with aggregate earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Market analysts also maintain high expectations for the remainder of the year. The forecast for fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings indicates a 27.6% increase compared to last year. The full-year earnings growth for 2026 is projected at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms contribute roughly 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. They also make up about 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, according to Barclays research. These data underscore the ongoing importance of technology-related companies in earnings revisions.
Interest rate environment remains supportive of market momentum
The rally persists amid elevated U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The Federal Reserve noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained high. Projections released in September suggest median economic growth of 2.3% for 2026, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The central bank’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year peaks as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these higher borrowing costs, the S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. Equities are approaching five years of growth near record levels, supported by solid earnings and borrowing costs that remain above those seen earlier in previous bull markets.