NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, marking a continuation of a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9. The August figure was revised downward from the previous reading to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 through September 23 formed the basis of the survey, revealing weakening in both current condition assessments and expectations for the upcoming six months.
The Present Situation Index declined by 7.9 points, reaching 109.3, indicating reduced optimism about business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased by 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This index gauges outlooks on income, employment, and business conditions over the next half-year. The September drop followed similar declines in July and August, with both indices pulling the overall confidence level further below earlier in the year.
The survey conducted by the Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in perceptions of current business conditions. About 18.5% of consumers rated conditions as good, down from 18.8% in August. Conversely, the proportion describing conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Labor market outlooks also deteriorated, with 23.6% stating jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%, and 21.9% claiming jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation outlook rises amid elevated fuel prices
In September, consumers anticipated higher inflation, with the average 12-month inflation expectation rising 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median increasing to 5.1%. Federal data indicated that consumer prices grew 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.9% rise in gasoline prices during August. On September 29, AAA noted that the national average for regular gasoline reached about $4.46 per gallon.
Spending intentions also showed restraint across multiple categories. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase automobiles and homes edged downward in September. Expectations for service-related expenses, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also declined. However, vacation plans appeared more robust, with 42.6% of consumers intending to take a trip within six months—an increase of 0.5 percentage points from August, primarily driven by domestic travel.
Outlook on employment and income prospects dampened
Expectations for business growth, job availability, and income levels weakened. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, compared to 17.0% in August. The proportion expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Similarly, 14.0% projected an increase in job opportunities, while 28.4% foresaw fewer jobs. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% expecting income gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the next six months.
The survey results indicated broader pressures on household finances. Views on current family finances turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels declined across all age groups and nearly all income brackets based on a six-month moving average. The online monthly survey, conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board, closed its September data on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index update is scheduled for October 27.